Chris Wesseling and I teamed up to break down the 2012 free agency and trade markets at wide receiver, and Pat Daugherty will end our offense series with a look at the tight ends later this week. Click the following links for Wesseling?s Quarterback Market column and my take on the Running Back Market.
Wide Receivers Expected to be Franchise Tagged
1. Wes Welker, Patriots
Overview: The Pats have discussed a long-term deal with Welker's camp, but the sides don't seem likely to find common ground by early March. Welker is seeking a top receiver contract after a career year. New England is predictably loath to hand over a mega contract to a skill-position player on the wrong side of the age-30 barrier. National as well as local writers fully expect the Patriots to apply the franchise tag by the March 5 deadline.
Overview: Patriots on a one-year, $9.6 million contract.
2. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Overview: The Stanford Routt signing paves the way for Brandon Carr's exit, leaving Bowe as the obvious candidate for the Chiefs' franchise tag. GM Scott Pioli confirmed as much Tuesday morning, stating "one way or another" Bowe would be back in Kansas City in 2012. While Bowe's numbers were down across the board versus a tougher schedule last season, he continued to show game-breaking ability by leading the NFL in receiving broken tackles.
Overview: Chiefs on a one-year, $9.6 million contract.
3. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
Overview: Though the Eagles have been tight-lipped about their plans for Jackson, the Philadelphia Inquirer has twice reported that he will be tagged in lieu of a long-term contract. GM Howie Roseman won't lose one of the game's most dangerous vertical threats with nothing in return, but he will entertain trade offers over the next few weeks. Should Jackson show increased commitment and a willingness to make tough catches in traffic next season, the Eagles will be more inclined to meet his asking price of more than $10 million per year.
Overview: Eagles on a one-year, $9.6 million contract.
Wide Receiver Free Agents
1. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Scouting Report: Jackson is seen as a high-risk signing in some circles due to his pair of DUIs and subsequent three-game suspension to open the 2010 season. While coaches have praised Jackson's work ethic and football IQ, the one hole in his game is a lack of game-to-game consistency a true No. 1 receiver must possess. On the flip side, Jackson is one of the NFL's elite downfield playmakers, a dangerous red-zone threat, and a first-down machine. Still in his prime at age 29, Jackson has averaged more than 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns in his last three full seasons.
Availability: The Bolts will reportedly "do everything in their power" to re-sign their top receiver, and there appears to be mutual interest on Jackson's end. The franchise tag is prohibitive, however, as Jackson would collect 120 percent ($13.7 million) of his $11.4 million 2011 salary. GM A.J. Smith will make a competitive offer, but there will be at least one desperate team with the cash flow to overpay. The Rams, Bucs, Redskins and Vikings should be among Jackson's most ardent suitors.
Prediction: Buccaneers on a five-year, $56 million contract.
2. Brandon Lloyd, Rams
Scouting Report: A boundary receiver and downfield threat, Lloyd succeeds with fluid long strides, outstanding leaping ability, and acrobatic body control at the point of the catch despite mediocre speed. After a career year in 2010 due in large part to Josh McDaniels' creative play-calling and scheming to create advantageous matchups, Lloyd's production dipped in two of the NFL's weaker passing attacks last season. Bright yet complicated and opinionated, Lloyd seems to have worn out his welcome in several locker rooms over his nine-year career.
Availability: Lloyd's age (31 in July) and checkered history would seem to make him an ideal candidate for the franchise tag, but the Rams reportedly have no interest in going that route. Acknowledging McDaniels' role in his late-career renaissance, Lloyd has made it clear that reuniting with the Patriots' new coordinator is a high priority. He's also open to returning to St. Louis, though it's clear that the team won't break the bank to bring him back.
Prediction: Patriots on a two-year, $15 million contract.
3. Marques Colston, Saints
Scouting Report: A picture of consistency despite persistent injuries, Colston excels in traffic by "high-pointing" the football with one of the most wide-spanning catch radiuses the NFL has seen. As a solid all-around receiver, Colston has long been an asset in the red zone, down the field, and as a go-to option on third downs. After a half-decade as Drew Brees' favorite target, Colston fell behind explosive matchup nightmares Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham in 2011 while remaining highly productive in his own right.
Availability: Saints GM Mickey Loomis has a history of managing the salary cap to keep home-grown talent, especially those offensive weapons for whom Brees has gone to bat. Brees can substantially increase the odds of Colston returning to the Big Easy by agreeing to a long-term deal of his own, freeing up the franchise tag. Should Colston hit the open market, teams in need of a big, physical receiver such as the Bears, Raiders, Vikings, and Redskins are potential suitors.
Prediction: Saints on a four-year, $36 million contract.
4. Stevie Johnson, Bills
Scouting Report: While Johnson has been the primary beneficiary of coach Chan Gailey's shotgun-heavy, short-passing based offense, he's also showcased physicality, separation skills, and red-zone chops the past two seasons. Among his primary concerns are a handful of high-profile drops, a penchant for juvenile back-breaking penalties, and an inability to consistently beat double coverage. As a result, Johnson falls just shy of the top tier of free agent receivers.
Availability: Johnson's preference is to stay in Buffalo, as he's not guaranteed to be featured heavily outside of Gailey's scheme. While the two sides have exchanged proposals, they haven't had luck finding common ground. Much like the Chargers with Vincent Jackson, the Bills aren't currently inclined to franchise Johnson but could reverse course over the next few weeks.
Prediction: Bills on a five-year, $33 million contract.
5. Reggie Wayne, Colts
Scouting Report: Wayne reversed a five-year decline in yards per reception last season, but his production predictably declined across the board without Peyton Manning under center. Wayne no longer separates from quality cornerbacks and didn't give consistent effort in a lost year. Entering his age-34 season, Wayne's ideal fit is as a possession receiver for a veteran quarterback on a playoff team.
Availability: Displeased with his contract the past two offseasons, Wayne is likely to flee the rebuilding Colts for a contender. Clearly on the decline, Wayne is headed for disappointment in a buyer's market at wide receiver. Although there's been talk of a package deal with Peyton Manning, the quarterback may not sign with a team until April or May.
Chris Wesseling and I teamed up to break down the 2012 free agency and trade markets at wide receiver, and Pat Daugherty will end our offense series with a look at the tight ends later this week. Click the following links for Wesseling?s Quarterback Market column and my take on the Running Back Market.
Wide Receivers Expected to be Franchise Tagged
1. Wes Welker, Patriots
Overview: The Pats have discussed a long-term deal with Welker's camp, but the sides don't seem likely to find common ground by early March. Welker is seeking a top receiver contract after a career year. New England is predictably loath to hand over a mega contract to a skill-position player on the wrong side of the age-30 barrier. National as well as local writers fully expect the Patriots to apply the franchise tag by the March 5 deadline.
Overview: Patriots on a one-year, $9.6 million contract.
2. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Overview: The Stanford Routt signing paves the way for Brandon Carr's exit, leaving Bowe as the obvious candidate for the Chiefs' franchise tag. GM Scott Pioli confirmed as much Tuesday morning, stating "one way or another" Bowe would be back in Kansas City in 2012. While Bowe's numbers were down across the board versus a tougher schedule last season, he continued to show game-breaking ability by leading the NFL in receiving broken tackles.
Overview: Chiefs on a one-year, $9.6 million contract.
3. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
Overview: Though the Eagles have been tight-lipped about their plans for Jackson, the Philadelphia Inquirer has twice reported that he will be tagged in lieu of a long-term contract. GM Howie Roseman won't lose one of the game's most dangerous vertical threats with nothing in return, but he will entertain trade offers over the next few weeks. Should Jackson show increased commitment and a willingness to make tough catches in traffic next season, the Eagles will be more inclined to meet his asking price of more than $10 million per year.
Overview: Eagles on a one-year, $9.6 million contract.
Wide Receiver Free Agents
1. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Scouting Report: Jackson is seen as a high-risk signing in some circles due to his pair of DUIs and subsequent three-game suspension to open the 2010 season. While coaches have praised Jackson's work ethic and football IQ, the one hole in his game is a lack of game-to-game consistency a true No. 1 receiver must possess. On the flip side, Jackson is one of the NFL's elite downfield playmakers, a dangerous red-zone threat, and a first-down machine. Still in his prime at age 29, Jackson has averaged more than 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns in his last three full seasons.
Availability: The Bolts will reportedly "do everything in their power" to re-sign their top receiver, and there appears to be mutual interest on Jackson's end. The franchise tag is prohibitive, however, as Jackson would collect 120 percent ($13.7 million) of his $11.4 million 2011 salary. GM A.J. Smith will make a competitive offer, but there will be at least one desperate team with the cash flow to overpay. The Rams, Bucs, Redskins and Vikings should be among Jackson's most ardent suitors.
Prediction: Buccaneers on a five-year, $56 million contract.
2. Brandon Lloyd, Rams
Scouting Report: A boundary receiver and downfield threat, Lloyd succeeds with fluid long strides, outstanding leaping ability, and acrobatic body control at the point of the catch despite mediocre speed. After a career year in 2010 due in large part to Josh McDaniels' creative play-calling and scheming to create advantageous matchups, Lloyd's production dipped in two of the NFL's weaker passing attacks last season. Bright yet complicated and opinionated, Lloyd seems to have worn out his welcome in several locker rooms over his nine-year career.
Availability: Lloyd's age (31 in July) and checkered history would seem to make him an ideal candidate for the franchise tag, but the Rams reportedly have no interest in going that route. Acknowledging McDaniels' role in his late-career renaissance, Lloyd has made it clear that reuniting with the Patriots' new coordinator is a high priority. He's also open to returning to St. Louis, though it's clear that the team won't break the bank to bring him back.
Prediction: Patriots on a two-year, $15 million contract.
3. Marques Colston, Saints
Scouting Report: A picture of consistency despite persistent injuries, Colston excels in traffic by "high-pointing" the football with one of the most wide-spanning catch radiuses the NFL has seen. As a solid all-around receiver, Colston has long been an asset in the red zone, down the field, and as a go-to option on third downs. After a half-decade as Drew Brees' favorite target, Colston fell behind explosive matchup nightmares Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham in 2011 while remaining highly productive in his own right.
Availability: Saints GM Mickey Loomis has a history of managing the salary cap to keep home-grown talent, especially those offensive weapons for whom Brees has gone to bat. Brees can substantially increase the odds of Colston returning to the Big Easy by agreeing to a long-term deal of his own, freeing up the franchise tag. Should Colston hit the open market, teams in need of a big, physical receiver such as the Bears, Raiders, Vikings, and Redskins are potential suitors.
Prediction: Saints on a four-year, $36 million contract.
4. Stevie Johnson, Bills
Scouting Report: While Johnson has been the primary beneficiary of coach Chan Gailey's shotgun-heavy, short-passing based offense, he's also showcased physicality, separation skills, and red-zone chops the past two seasons. Among his primary concerns are a handful of high-profile drops, a penchant for juvenile back-breaking penalties, and an inability to consistently beat double coverage. As a result, Johnson falls just shy of the top tier of free agent receivers.
Availability: Johnson's preference is to stay in Buffalo, as he's not guaranteed to be featured heavily outside of Gailey's scheme. While the two sides have exchanged proposals, they haven't had luck finding common ground. Much like the Chargers with Vincent Jackson, the Bills aren't currently inclined to franchise Johnson but could reverse course over the next few weeks.
Prediction: Bills on a five-year, $33 million contract.
5. Reggie Wayne, Colts
Scouting Report: Wayne reversed a five-year decline in yards per reception last season, but his production predictably declined across the board without Peyton Manning under center. Wayne no longer separates from quality cornerbacks and didn't give consistent effort in a lost year. Entering his age-34 season, Wayne's ideal fit is as a possession receiver for a veteran quarterback on a playoff team.
Availability: Displeased with his contract the past two offseasons, Wayne is likely to flee the rebuilding Colts for a contender. Clearly on the decline, Wayne is headed for disappointment in a buyer's market at wide receiver. Although there's been talk of a package deal with Peyton Manning, the quarterback may not sign with a team until April or May.
Prediction: Cardinals on a three-year, $16 million contract.
6. Robert Meachem, Saints
Scouting Report: Although he possesses ideal size and legit downfield playmaking ability, Meachem's career has been filled with stops and starts due to injuries, questionable commitment, and the Saints' mix-and-match approach at receiver. Meachem has sat between 40-45 receptions and 620-720 yards in each of the past the past three years, but he's had 22 games of fewer than 30 yards compared to just eight games over 75 yards during that span.
Availability: With Drew Brees, Marques Colston, and Carl Nicks as GM Mickey Loomis' top priorities, Meachem figures to be the odd man out in the Big Easy. The 49ers, Bengals, Bears, Raiders, and Redskins should be interested in the services of a physically gifted 27-year-old receiver.
Prediction: 49ers on a three-year, $13 million contract.
7. Mario Manningham, Giants
Scouting Report: Manningham ran in the 4.6s coming out of Michigan, but his bread and butter is the vertical passing game. An impressive 38 of his 160 career receptions have gone for 20 yards or longer, and Manningham's ability to make difficult over-the-shoulder catches showed up on the biggest play of Super Bowl XLVI. Manningham is not a physical wide receiver, however, and plays smaller than his size (6'0/185). While he consistently creates separation downfield, Manningham isn't going to make any plays over the middle or in double coverage. He needs to be a No. 2 or 3 receiver and would be stretched as more.
Availability: After Victor Cruz's franchise record-breaking year, Manningham's time in New York is up at age 26. The Giants won't engage in a bidding war for a player no higher than third on the depth chart at receiver. Although SI.com's Peter King has predicted Manningham will collect at least $7 million per season on the open market, we see that as highly optimistic.
Prediction: Bears on a four-year, $22 million contract.
8. Pierre Garcon, Colts
Scouting Report: An inconsistent deep threat with a penchant for taking advantage of suspect secondaries, Garcon bounced back from a drop-plagued 2010 season to mirror Reggie Wayne's production. Digging deeper, though, all six of his touchdowns and nearly half (44.5 percent) of Garcon's 947 receiving yards came in three games versus the Bucs, Chiefs, and Pats due in large part to broken coverage, poor tackling, and garbage-time defensive effort. The talent is there, but the production is spotty.
Availability: Owner Jim Irsay has claimed Garcon and pass rusher Robert Mathis as his two highest priorities in free agency, though Garcon is expected to explore his market before deciding whether to return to Indy. Turning 26 in August, Garcon seems likely to team with Austin Collie as Andrew Luck's top two receivers.
Prediction: Colts on a four-year, $19 million contract.
9. Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
Scouting Report: A lean, long-armed wideout with 4.38 wheels coming out of Illinois State, Robinson appeared poised for an impressive career after catching 37 passes for 437 yards in only six starts as a rookie. Injuries and inconsistency plagued Robinson for the next three years, but he rehabbed his stock with career highs in receptions (54), yards (858), and touchdowns (11) in Dallas last season. Robinson abused single coverage while Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten drew the vast majority of defense's attention. While Robinson has some good-looking tools, the sudden breakout as a fifth-year player is concerning. He's been incredibly brittle, and Robinson's track record inspires no confidence that he wouldn?t be a free agent bust.
Availability: Robinson has made it clear that staying in Dallas is his first choice and money won't be the driving factor in his decision. His player rep, on the other hand, expects Robinson to attract plenty of interest as a 27-year-old coming off a career year. Owner/GM Jerry Jones has said re-signing Robinson will be a top priority. That sentiment will be tested if the injury-prone red-zone threat lands an offer with high-dollar guarantees. We suspect he won't.
Prediction: Cowboys on a two-year, $8 million contract.
10. Braylon Edwards, 49ers
Scouting Report: When healthy, Edwards is a smooth deep threat with a knack for creating separation downfield. He is 6-foot-3, 214 and ran 4.45 coming out of Michigan. Edwards is also an underrated run blocker. Off-field issues crushed his 2011 market value, however, and medical woes may do the same this spring. Edwards pleaded guilty to DUI in 2010 and was fined for violating the league's substance abuse policy in September. Another infraction could result in suspension. Edwards tore his right meniscus in Week 2 with the 49ers and missed the next five weeks. He separated his right shoulder almost immediately after returning and was completely ineffective down the stretch. Edwards was cut on December 27. No team put in a waiver claim.
Availability: As a suspension risk, Edwards could only manage a one-year, $1 million offer from the 49ers last summer. After bombing spectacularly in San Francisco, Edwards received no interest upon being waived in late December. Jets coach Rex Ryan hinted that Edwards would be welcomed back with open arms. Bengals owner/GM Mike Brown has a history of collecting name players on the cheap once their value has reached its nadir.
Prediction: Bengals on a one-year, $3 million contract.
11. Early Doucet, Cardinals
Scouting Report: With a 4.56 forty time and 34.5-inch vertical, Doucet is an average athlete lacking downfield playmaking ability. He's spent his first four NFL seasons rotating in the slot for Arizona, playing behind Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban, and Andre Roberts. Though known as a tough receiver, the 26-year-old has battled a laundry list of injuries, most notably fractured ribs, sports hernia surgery, recurring hamstring woes, and an abdominal strain. Doucet did seem to take a step forward in 2011, setting career highs in receptions (54), yards (689), and touchdowns (5) while making it through the first 16-game season of his career.
Availability: The Cardinals are expected to let Doucet hit the open market on March 13. The Arizona coaching staff appears to have determined that Doucet is a slot receiver only and a replaceable player. Doucet has some history with new Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley, who ran Arizona's offense during Doucet's rookie year. Chiefs assistant head coach Maurice Carthon was also a position coach on the Cardinals' staff when Doucet entered the NFL.
Prediction: Steelers on a one-year, $1.5 million contract.
12. Randy Moss, "Retirement"
Scouting Report: Contrary to popular belief, Moss' decline didn't happen suddenly in 2010. Moss' numbers began hitting the skids around midseason in 2009, as he averaged under 53 yards per game in the final eight weeks, including the playoffs. His career spiral became more obvious the following year, when three teams essentially gave up on Moss during a three-month span. Moss sat out the 2011 season, allegedly in "retirement," and later cited off-field issues for his decision not to play. Now 35, Moss can likely still run fast in a straight line, stands 6-foot-4, and has some of the softest hands on the planet. At the very least, Moss could make for an effective clear-out route runner, draw some double coverage and make the players around him better. But is he willing to fight for tough catches in traffic, or to accept a diminished role as a No. 2 receiver? The feeling here is that if Moss is to make a successful comeback, it will be mostly up to him.
Availability: The Jets preferred Moss over Plaxico Burress last year, but word on the street had the future Hall of Famer only willing to return to New England. While many teams will be wary of the potential headache, the Jets are both needy at receiver and willing to take calculated risks. Moss will come cheap, and he's not going to command much guaranteed money.
Prediction: Jets on a one-year, $2.5 million contract.
Other Wide Receiver Free Agents: Ted Ginn, Plaxico Burress, Roscoe Parrish, Jerome Simpson, Jerricho Cotchery, Eddie Royal, Steve Smith, Mark Clayton, Harry Douglas, Andre Caldwell, Josh Morgan, Donte' Stallworth, Legedu Naanee, Eric Weems, Terrell Owens, Deion Branch, Chaz Schilens, Devin Aromashodu, Mike Sims-Walker, Derek Hagan, Patrick Crayton.
Restricted Free Agent Wide Receivers
1. Mike Wallace, Steelers
Scouting Report: A third-round steal in the 2009 draft, Wallace quickly passed Limas Sweed to be Pittsburgh's No. 3 receiver as a rookie. The Steelers felt comfortable trading Santonio Holmes during the 2010 offseason, primarily because of Wallace's emergence, and he's led the team in receiving two straight years. While Wallace is sometimes billed as a straight-line speedster, his ability to take the top off a defense opens things up for other players. Wallace has been durable for his size (6'0/199) and has yet to miss a game due to injury. He's averaging 18.7 yards per career reception with 24 TDs. In 34 starts, Wallace has averaged 78 yards per game. Only eight NFL wide receivers had more first-down catches in 2011. Wallace ran a 4.33 forty time at the 2009 Combine, also demonstrating explosion with a vertical leap of 40 inches and 10-foot, 9-inch broad jump. Not yet 26 years old, Wallace is the most dynamic deep threat in the AFC.
Availability: The new CBA prevents restricted free agents from receiving the old first- and third-round tender, a once-prohibitive tag for interested teams. The highest tender is now a first-round only designation, requiring clubs in pursuit to surrender a top-32 draft pick if they propose an offer sheet the restricted free agent's current team cannot match. In other words, Wallace can be acquired for a first-round pick and contract the Steelers decline to pay. Pittsburgh is strapped for salary cap space and may balk at any contract proposal that contains a large first-year roster bonus. As a top-ten NFL receiver, Wallace is well worth the money and draft choice.
Prediction: Ravens on a five-year, $47.5 million contract.
2. Danny Amendola, Rams
Scouting Report: Undrafted out of Texas Tech in 2008, Amendola spent time on the Cowboys and Eagles' practice squads before securing a spot on the Rams' 53-man roster in September of 2009. He earned St. Louis' full-time slot receiver job a month later, also returning punts. Amendola led the Rams in receiving in 2010, but was lost for the year in Week 1 of 2011 with a dislocated left elbow. A torn triceps was discovered in the same arm and Amendola had surgery. A quicker-than-fast slot receiver, Amendola is an efficient pass catcher with nine career drops among 133 receptions. He averages only 8.0 yards per career catch, however, and runs in the 4.6 range at 5-foot-10, 186. Amendola lacks versatility to play the outside receiver positions.
Availability: Short on playmaking ability, Amendola will generate little to no interest on the restricted free agent market. If the new Rams front office wants to retain Amendola, they can safely do so with a second-round tender. The round-two tag is valued at just over $1.9 million.
Prediction: Rams on a one-year, $1.927 million contract.
3. Adrian Arrington, Saints
Scouting Report: A surprise underclassman draft entrant after a modest college career opposite Mario Manningham at Michigan, Arrington was selected with a late seventh-round pick in 2008 by the Saints. He spent the next three years either on New Orleans' practice squad or injured reserve, battling various ailments (e.g. turf toe, torn hamstring). Arrington was on the 2011 active roster, but made only four appearances. An annual training camp star, Arrington has racked up 24 catches for 482 yards (20.1 average) and three TDs in four career preseasons. The 6-foot-3, 192-pound 26-year-old has been unable to unseat Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson for playing time. He doesn't play special teams, either.
Availability: Arrington is a somewhat intriguing prospect and has put a fair amount of action on tape, at least in preseasons. If the Saints extend Arrington only an "original pick" tender, he may generate some interest from receiver-needy teams at the cost of a cheap contract and seventh-round draft choice. Ultimately, it's more likely Arrington returns to New Orleans. His value would rise if the Saints lost Colston or Meachem, both of whom are unrestricted free agents.
Prediction: Saints on a one-year, $1.26 million contract.
Wide Receiver Trade Candidates
1. James Jones, Packers
Overview: Essentially black-balled on the free agent market after two unforgettable playoff drops, Jones settled for a three-year, $9.4 million contract to stay in Green Bay last July. The deal was incredibly affordable for a durable, 27-year-old playmaking wide receiver. While drops are an ongoing issue, Jones has averaged 14.5 yards per career reception and scored 17 touchdowns over the past three seasons despite making just six starts. Jones, who packs 208 pounds onto his 6-foot-1 frame, is a physical possession receiver willing to make tough grabs in traffic. His bread and butter is run-after-catch. Jones is a backup in Green Bay, and 2011 second-round pick Randall Cobb will have a bigger role on offense in 2012. While staying with the Pack is Jones' most likely scenario, he could be an interesting trade target for receiver-needy clubs during training camp. His salary is a reasonable $2.3 million, and Jones could start for at least ten teams.
Prediction: Stays with Packers.
2. Arrelious Benn, Bucs
Overview: The 39th pick in the 2010 draft, Benn slumped through a pedestrian first season (25/395/2) before tearing his left ACL in late December. While Benn recovered quickly enough to start the Buccaneers' 2011 opener, he was part of the problem in a receiver corps that created little separation from defensive backs all season long. Benn shared time with Dezmon Briscoe for most of the year, breaking 75 yards once in 14 appearances and averaging 13.5 yards in his final four games. Benn figures to be stronger and faster a full year removed from the ACL tear, but he's not proven much better than Briscoe, and Tampa Bay is starved for a vertical field-stretcher to book end Mike Williams. Benn, when healthy, is much more of a possession threat. The odds are ultimately against GM Mark Dominik giving up on Benn after two seasons, but he's a tradable commodity with a cheap salary ($490K) and not an especially good fit for the offense.
Prediction: Stays with Buccaneers.
3. Louis Murphy, Raiders
Overview: Murphy led Raiders wideouts in catches (41) and yards (609) in 2010, but fell behind Jacoby Ford, rookie Denarius Moore, and an emerging Darrius Heyward-Bey last season. Behind the eight ball after August hernia surgery, Murphy returned as a fourth receiver at midseason and experienced more groin tightness late in the year. Murphy goes 6-foot-3, 205 and ran a 4.43 forty coming out of Florida in 2009. He's in the last year of his rookie deal, and that's when teams often begin looking to unload players for trade. It seems unlikely that the Raiders would be willing to extend Murphy's deal. The 25-year-old has history with new Bengals assistant Hue Jackson, Jets wide receivers coach Sanjay Lal, and Seahawks assistant head coach Tom Cable.
Prediction: Traded to Jets for seventh-round pick.
Other Wide Receiver Trade Candidates: Mohamed Massaquoi, Brian Hartline, Ramses Barden, Riley Cooper, Brandon Gibson.
Wide Receiver Release Candidates
1. Santana Moss, Redskins
Overview: The Redskins' split end in two-wideout sets and slot receiver in three-wide packages, Moss started the 2011 season hot with at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown in each of the team's first four games. Moss fractured a bone in his left hand in Week 7, however, and missed the next four weeks before finishing the season slowly. He failed to clear 50 yards in five of the final six games. Moss still handles himself well on underneath patterns, but he's no longer a vertical threat. The Redskins are unlikely to release Moss because doing so would cause a salary cap hit. Going on age 33, however, this will likely be Moss' last year in D.C.
Prediction: Stays with Redskins.
2. Nate Burleson, Lions
Overview: A veteran slot receiver with limited playmaking ability, Burleson struggled through an error-prone second season in Detroit. His nine drops led the Lions and tied Burleson for seventh in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Burleson also ranked seventh in penalties among wideouts while averaging a career-low 10.4 yards per catch. Burleson has entered the non-guaranteed portion of his contract, and is owed a $4 million salary in 2012. GM Martin Mayhew stated in January that Burleson is not a candidate for offseason release, but he may have to restructure to stay on. Set to turn 31 before the season, Burleson is expected to be the No. 4 option in Detroit's passing game, behind Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Titus Young.
Prediction: Stays with Lions after pay cut.
3. Chad Ochocinco, Patriots
Overview: Acquired last July for a 2012 fifth-round pick and sixth-rounder in 2013, Ochocinco was painfully slow to pick up the Patriots' offense and failed to capitalize on increased playing time when Aaron Hernandez missed two early-season games with a knee injury. As of mid-October, teammates were still telling Ochocinco where to line up for certain offensive plays. Ocho fell behind Tiquan Underwood and Julian Edelman on the depth chart in December, and finished the regular season with 276 yards on 15 receptions in 15 appearances. He was a healthy scratch for the AFC Championship Game. At age 34, Ochocinco's separation skills have declined sharply and he is mentally unreliable. Ochocinco is due $4.6 million in 2012 salary and bonuses.
Prediction: Released by April.
4. Lee Evans, Ravens
Overview: Attempting to address their need for perimeter speed, the Ravens sent a 2012 fourth-round pick to Buffalo in exchange for Evans on August 12. After racking up 128 yards and a touchdown on six catches in two preseason games, Evans suffered a high left ankle sprain and was totally ineffective while attempting to play through the injury in September. The Ravens shut Evans down for all of October and most of November. He returned for the stretch run but could not get open, finishing the regular season with four catches for 74 yards in nine games (two starts). In the AFC Championship Game, Evans had a critical would-be touchdown catch stripped from his hands by Patriots CB Sterling Moore. Now 31, Evans is due a $1 million roster bonus on March 18 in addition to a $3.275 million base salary. His cap number is $5.61 million.
Prediction: Released before the bonus due date.
5. Hines Ward, Steelers
Overview: Ward was listed as a "starter" in eight of the Steelers' 2011 regular season gamebooks, but five of his starts occurred in the first five games and he was demoted to fifth receiver at midseason, falling behind Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Jerricho Cotchery, and Emmanuel Sanders. Ward averaged 14 snaps played in Pittsburgh's final nine games, including the playoffs. His 8.3 yards-per-reception average was easily a career low, and Ward's 381 receiving yards were his fewest since 1998, Ward's rookie season. Turning 36 in March, Ward has deteriorated into a slow-moving slot receiver who struggles mightily to get open and is easily taken out of plays by physical press coverage. In late January, Ward underwent surgery to remove loose bone fragments from his right ankle. He has a $4 million base salary for 2012.
Prediction: Released in early March.
Other Wide Receiver Release Candidates: Anquan Boldin (if Ravens pursue Wallace), Mike Williams (Seattle), Devery Henderson, Donald Driver, Jacoby Jones, Michael Jenkins, Ben Obomanu.
Source: http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39954/59/the-2012-wide-receiver-market
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